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	<title>Ruthven Park Nature Blog</title>
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	<link>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog</link>
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		<title>February 3rd &#8211; Just To Give You An Idea</title>
		<link>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/02/03/february-3rd-just-to-give-you-an-idea</link>
		<comments>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/02/03/february-3rd-just-to-give-you-an-idea#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:49:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rick L</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Migration Monitoring]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/?p=3859</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As you can see from the above map, the CSBN stretches across the country and, in doing so, has the potential to generate a lot of data that can be co-ordinated to provide interesting and useful insights into the biology &#8230; <a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/02/03/february-3rd-just-to-give-you-an-idea">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_3862" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 650px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/csbn-map.png"><img src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/csbn-map-1024x791.png" alt="" title="csbn-map" width="640" height="494" class="size-large wp-image-3862" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The CSBN stretches across the country.      - C. Harris &#038; O. Love</p></div>
<p>As you can see from the above map, the CSBN stretches across the country and, in doing so, has the potential to generate a lot of data that can be co-ordinated to provide interesting and useful insights into the biology of this amazing bird.</p>
<p>But this map, completed just a month or so ago, is already dated. Missing are: the dynamic duo of Alexandre Anctil and Ludo Jolicoeur in Rimouski (who came up with the first interesting recapture of the season &#8211; see blog for January 28th); Darryl Edwards from Sudbury (who is trying to manage a PhD., buntings <em>and</em> a burgeoning family (hmmmm&#8230;.so is Ludo&#8230;the burgeoning family bit); and Mike Blom in the Peace River area of Alberta. This is what Mike does when he&#8217;s not banding SNBUs: http://raptorbanding.blogspot.com/    Wow!</p>
<p>Here in the Ruthven area it&#8217;s still mild temperatures and snow-free fields. Just before the snow disappeared we were out with a few traps but managed to catch just a single Mourning Dove:<br />
<div id="attachment_3863" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/IMG_3112.jpg"><img src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/IMG_3112-300x225.jpg" alt="" title="IMG_3112" width="300" height="225" class="size-medium wp-image-3863" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Anne Klaus with a MODO - just before the melt.             </p></div></p>
<p>Rick</p>
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		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>February 1st &#8211; Introducing the Canadian Snow Bunting Network</title>
		<link>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/02/01/february-1st-introducing-the-canadian-snow-bunting-network</link>
		<comments>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/02/01/february-1st-introducing-the-canadian-snow-bunting-network#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 03:56:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rick L</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Migration Monitoring]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/?p=3834</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; Monday, the 30th, I went out with great expectations &#8211; 5 cm of snow covered the ground. It turned out to be just another of the disappointments this Winter has brought. I didn&#8217;t even see a Snow Bunting let &#8230; <a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/02/01/february-1st-introducing-the-canadian-snow-bunting-network">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_3849" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 510px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSCF3019-e1328189602796.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-3849" title="DSCF3019" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSCF3019-e1328189602796.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="375" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">A beautiful early morning filled with great expectations.</p></div>
<div id="attachment_3850" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSCF3024.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3850" title="DSCF3024" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSCF3024-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Traps set, snow on the ground.....where are the birds?</p></div>
<div id="attachment_3851" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSCF3026.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3851" title="DSCF3026" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSCF3026-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The beginning of the day.</p></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter" style="text-align: left;">Monday, the 30th, I went out with great expectations &#8211; 5 cm of snow covered the ground. It turned out to be just another of the disappointments this Winter has brought. I didn&#8217;t even see a Snow Bunting let alone band one.</div>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter" style="text-align: left;">So, I decided to turn to other parts of the country through the &#8230;.<a title="CSBN" href="http://web2.uwindsor.ca/biiology/olove/CSBN.html">Canadian Snow Bunting Network</a>, a group of banders and volunteers, now spread across the country, that formed a loose &#8220;team&#8221; to study the Winter behaviour and ecology of Snow Buntings. &#8220;The Network&#8221; started two years ago with a small banding group in Southern Ontario. The results have been so encouraging that we decided to spread it out to the rest of the country. Hence, the CSBN.</div>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter" style="text-align: left;">This blog will, on occasion, serve as a way for the CSBN and its members to inform the readership (and each other) about what they&#8217;re doing, and what they&#8217;re discovering &#8211; and just how interesting and  exciting it can be.</div>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter" style="text-align: left;">And since I don&#8217;t have any Snow Buntings here in Haldimand County, I think I&#8217;ll start with a couple of reports from the Montreal area &#8211; where they <em>do</em> have some snow&#8230;..</div>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter" style="text-align: left;">From Simon Duvall in Montreal:</div>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter">
<p style="text-align: left;">Here are some news from the Montreal SNBU team. We just finished work at our Mirabel site where we banded 321 SNBU and 4 LALO in 8 trapping days. The last 2 days were pretty slow with only 12 birds in 2 days. It peaked on Jan 19, when we banded 94 birds. Here is the age/sex breakdown:</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">187 ASY-M</p>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<p>118 SY-M</p>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<p>7 ASY-F</p>
<p>9 SY-F</p>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<p>[Editor's note: 95% of the banded birds are males.]</p>
<p>We have two other sites that are ready for us, one near Sherbrooke and one just north of Montreal.</p>
<p>Hope you&#8217;re having as much fun as we are.</p>
<p>Simon Duval<br />
Coordonnateur/Coordinator<br />
Observatoire d&#8217;Oiseaux de McGill / McGill Bird Observatory<br />
<a href="http://www.migrationresearch.org/mbo.html" target="_blank">http://www.migrationresearch.org/mbo.html</a></p>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter">
<div id="attachment_3835" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/untitled.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3835" title="untitled" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/untitled-300x200.png" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The Mirabel site. From left to right: Simon Duval, Gay Gruner (both banders) and 2 volunteers.</p></div>
</div>
<div id="attachment_3836" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/buntings-at-the-traps.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3836" title="buntings at the traps" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/buntings-at-the-traps-300x200.png" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Buntings at the traps. - R. Beauchamp</p></div>
<p><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/gray-partridge.png"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3840" title="gray partridge" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/gray-partridge-300x200.png" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div id="attachment_3841" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/male-wings.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3841" title="male-wings" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/male-wings-300x200.png" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">SY-M (above) and ASY-M (below)</p></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div id="attachment_3842" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/rectrices.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3842" title="rectrices" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/rectrices-300x200.png" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Tail of a SY bird (top) and ASY (bottom)</p></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Bonjour de Barnston-Ouest,</p>
<p>Same story in southern Quebec, where winter is a sad, wet shadow of its usual self. As soon as we have more than 5 cm of snow the bunting show up in force&#8230;had 175 a couple of weekends ago. Subsequently, we lost most of the little snow we had and numbers dropped off dramatically, increasing again yesterday with a few more centimetres of snow. This morning it was pouring rain&#8230;time will tell if it will be worthwhile for the banders to show up this weekend. For those interested in the site, I include a web-cam address. On good days the driveway and the barn roof are covered with snow buntings.<br />
<a title="http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/siutimmiutaliq/1/show.html CTRL + Click to follow link" href="http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/siutimmiutaliq/1/show.html" target="_blank">http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/siutimmiutaliq/1/show.html</a></p>
<p>Cheers and happy bunting hunting.</p>
<p>Carl Bromwich</p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial;">The season started very slow in our back field, in Lanark, Ontario, with 4 or 5 Snow Buntings coming to feed. The numbers increased gradually and we&#8217;re up to about 60-70 birds now. Nowhere close to the numbers we had in the last couple of years, which was around 150.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial;">Lise Balthazar</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial;">Lanark, Ontario</span></p>
<div id="attachment_3844" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/IMG00035-20120125-1103.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3844" title="IMG00035-20120125-1103" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/IMG00035-20120125-1103-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Male Snow Bunting captured by Fergus Nicoll who bands west of Ottawa.</p></div>
<p>Sage Advice from David Lamble, the pre-eminent bunting bander in the country, for those starting out and getting &#8220;antsy&#8221; because those <a href="mailto:d@$#%d">d&amp;$#%d</a> birds just won&#8217;t go in the traps:</p>
<p>Hello All:</p>
<p>My ground traps are still effective &#8212; but there are some conditions.</p>
<p>First: I am off any major roadway &#8212; so the traffic is minimal.</p>
<p>Second: We have cloudy days, which are quite necessary for trapping the birds &#8212; the bright sunny days give me about 10% of the trapping of cloudy days.</p>
<p>Third: My area is very open with a fair bit of wind ( we are supposedly the windiest place in Ontario) &#8212; so the windy conditions seem to make the birds hungrier.</p>
<p>Fourth: I make a strong effort to capture the Shrikes and Hawks that follow the birds and move them several miles away (after banding, of course). So far I have captured 3 Shrikes and no hawks in January and not had any repeats &#8212; the more heavily hunted the Snow Buntings, the more nervous they are &#8212; just as the increased traffic at other sites seems to make them less likely to come to the bait.</p>
<p>So even on poor days, I will get 10 to 15 birds in my 3 traps every 30 to 40 minutes. Good days give me 25 to 50 birds every hour. When the weather was terrible, last winter, I might get 100 birds per hour.</p>
<p>Potter traps were used exclusively in Greenland, when the government was making an attempt to band as many Snow Buntings as possible. The array of Potter traps consisted of 20 or so on a long table. I had the impression that the trappers/banders had several tables, but I am not certain. Even so, the number of Snow Buntings trapped was quite small compared to the numbers our group captures each winter.</p>
<p>I have tried several Potter traps with limited success. I have never tried mist nets (beacuse it is too windy here, most days), but have heard of others using mist nets and a lure tape with some success.</p>
<p>Take care&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. David</p>
<p>Thanks to all that have sent in information and pictures.</p>
<p>Rick</p>
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		<item>
		<title>January 28th &#8211; A VERY Interesting Snow Bunting Recapture</title>
		<link>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/01/28/january-28th-a-very-interesting-snow-bunting-recapture</link>
		<comments>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/01/28/january-28th-a-very-interesting-snow-bunting-recapture#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Jan 2012 17:20:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rick L</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Migration Monitoring]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/?p=3824</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[  As you&#8217;re well aware (and I&#8217;ve tried to make clear), there are few Snow Buntings around due to this abnormally mild Winter, itself a consequence of a record extreme positive cycle in the Arctic Oscillation. For further up-to-date commentary &#8230; <a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/01/28/january-28th-a-very-interesting-snow-bunting-recapture">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter"> </div>
<div id="attachment_3828" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 650px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Recapture_241194171.jpg"><img class="size-large wp-image-3828" title="Recapture_241194171" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Recapture_241194171-1024x670.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="418" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Recapture #2411-94171 - Hilde Johansen</p></div>
<p>As you&#8217;re well aware (and I&#8217;ve tried to make clear), there are few Snow Buntings around due to this abnormally mild Winter, itself a consequence of a record extreme positive cycle in the Arctic Oscillation. For further up-to-date commentary on what is happening with the weather, check out Jeff Masters&#8217; latest blog entry (for January 27th):</p>
<p> <a href="http://javanese.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html">http://javanese.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html</a></p>
<p>But where <em>are</em> the Snow Buntings that we &#8220;should&#8221; be seeing? As in many other passerine species, males, which arrive on the breeding ground earlier than females in order to establish breeding territories, will often winter as far north as they can to facilitate this early arrival &#8211; and beat their rivals to it. If this is the case, then &#8220;our&#8221; birds should be somewhere between us and Greenland &#8211; as we showed through recaptures from the Spring:  probably along the St.Lawrence or in Labrador.</p>
<p>So check out this very interesting recapture of a Snow Bunting banded by David Lamble in Fergus on January 8th, 2011:</p>
<p>Band Number: 2411-94171<br />
Species: SNOW BUNTING<br />
Date banded: 01/08/2011<br />
Banding Location: 10 KM E OF ARTHUR, ONTARIO, CANADA<br />
Age: HATCHED IN 2009 OR EARLIER<br />
Sex: MALE</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/IMG_3900.jpg"><img title="IMG_3900" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/IMG_3900-1024x682.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426" /></a></p>
<div>
<dl id="attachment_3826">
<dt></dt>
<dd>Alexandre&#8217;s banding site &#8211; note the trap in the foreground and the St. Lawrence in the background. -A. Anctil</dd>
</dl>
</div>
<p>This bird was recaptured by <strong>Alexandre Anctil</strong> today(!) <em>just outside of  Rimouski</em>. A quick look at an atlas will show you that Rimouski is about halfway between Lake Ontario and Labrador along the south shore of the St. Lawrence Rive.</p>
<p>Also interesting, is that theory suggests that males, again to facilitate their earlier arrival on the breeding ground, will spend the Winter further north and thus closer to the breeding area. Last year David Lamble, who bands ~60 km north of us, got mostly males, while we captured mostly females. Alexandre (and his side-kick, Ludo Jolicoeur) so far have banded 40 and recaptured one; all but one of these have been males.</p>
<div id="attachment_3827" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 650px"><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/IMG_3901.jpg"><img class="size-large wp-image-3827" title="IMG_3901" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/IMG_3901-1024x682.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The site is right on the shores of the St. Lawrence. - A. Anctil</p></div>
<p>So, congratulations to Alexandre and Ludo. Just goes to show you the value of networking&#8230;.</p>
<p>Rick</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>January 26th &#8211; Snow Bunting Banding Disaster!</title>
		<link>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/01/26/january-26th-snow-bunting-banding-disaster</link>
		<comments>http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/01/26/january-26th-snow-bunting-banding-disaster#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2012 01:14:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rick L</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Migration Monitoring]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/?p=3807</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#8217;t know any other way to put it: this season&#8217;s Snow Bunting banding has been a disaster. Consider the numbers: at this same date in 2010, we had banded 619 (total for the whole Winter &#8211; 985); at this &#8230; <a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/2012/01/26/january-26th-snow-bunting-banding-disaster">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know any other way to put it: this season&#8217;s Snow Bunting banding has been a disaster. Consider the numbers: at this same date in 2010, we had banded 619 (total for the whole Winter &#8211; 985); at this date in 2011, we had banded 1,074 (Winter total &#8211; 2,844); so far this year <strong>we have banded only 33!</strong> And it&#8217;s not just us: David Lamble, who bands in the Fergus area and who banded just under 7,000 last Winter, has banded only 200 so far this season. So what&#8217;s going on?</p>
<p>To try to answer this, I&#8217;ve had to take a crash course in major weather systems. We&#8217;ve all become acquainted with El Nino and its effects on Summer weather conditions but few of us have even heard of the Arctic Oscillation [AO] (or the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] which is a part of it), a system that impacts our Winter conditions.</p>
<h3> A quick Google search of &#8220;arctic oscillation&#8221; brings a wealth of information. Just below is a good, quick and easy explanation from <strong>EarthLabs</strong> of AO with diagrams.</h3>
<h3>(<strong>EarthLabs</strong> is a collaborative effort by individuals at the Center for Science Teaching and Learning at <a href="http://www.terc.edu/" target="_blank">TERC</a> in Cambridge, Massachusetts and the <a href="http://serc.carleton.edu/" target="_blank">Science Education Resource Center (SERC)</a> at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota.)</h3>
<h3><em><strong>How the Arctic Oscillation Works</strong></em></h3>
<p><em>Let&#8217;s start with the basics. Air moves from one place to another around the world because of air pressure. In some places, the air is thicker, or more dense, than it is in other places. When this happens, we say the air pressure is higher. Air moves from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure, creating wind.</em></p>
<p><em>The Arctic Oscillation is the movement of air back and forth between the North Pole area and areas farther south (for example the middle of the U.S.). Sometimes the air pressure is higher in the south than it is in the north. When this happens, warmer air pushes north and keeps the really cold Arctic air in the Arctic. This is called the &#8220;positive phase&#8221; of the Arctic Oscillation. During a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, wind and water currents draw warmer, saltier water farther into the Arctic than usual. Other times, the air pressure is higher in the Arctic than it is further south, so the cold air moves south. This is called the &#8220;negative phase.&#8221; During the negative phase, strong surface winds maintain a powerful clockwise gyre (circular current) around the north pole, which helps to keep colder, fresher water more evenly distributed at high latitudes. The Arctic Oscillation is a little more complex than this basic description, but this is basically how it works. The AO typically seesaws between its positive and negative phase over three-to-seven-year periods.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/arctic_oscillation_1318871378.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3820" title="arctic_oscillation_1318871378" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/arctic_oscillation_1318871378.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="361" /></a></p>
<p><strong></strong> This Winter we&#8217;re in the midst of a very strong &#8211; in fact, a record &#8221;extreme&#8221; &#8211; <strong>positive </strong>cycle resulting in the very mild and snow-free conditions we&#8217;ve been experiencing. Interestingly, this has followed two Winters of record extreme <strong>negative</strong> values, which brought us cold weather and lots of snow. This is highlighted below by an excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters&#8217; wonderful weather blog: Weather Underground.</p>
<p>[www.wunderground.com/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2021]</p>
<p><em><strong>Wild swings in the December Arctic Oscillation</strong></em><br />
<em>This winter&#8217;s remarkable AO/NAO pattern stands in stark contrast to what occurred the previous two winters, when we had the most extreme December jet stream patterns on record in the opposite direction (a strongly negative AO/NAO). The negative AO conditions suppressed westerly winds over the North Atlantic, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Western Europe, bringing unusually cold and snowy conditions. The December Arctic Oscillation index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record. Unfortunately, we don&#8217;t understand why the AO varies so much from winter to winter, nor why the AO has taken on such extreme configurations during four of the past six winters. Climate models are generally too crude to make skillful predictions on how human-caused climate change may be affecting the AO, or what might happen to the AO in the future. There is research linking an increase in solar activity and sunspots with the positive phase of the AO. Solar activity has increased sharply this winter compared to the past two winters, so perhaps we have seen a strong solar influence on the winter AO the past three winters. Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to the negative (cold) phase of the AO, like we observed the previous two winters. Those winters both had near-record low amounts of sunspot activity, so sea ice loss and low sunspot activity may have combined to bring a negative AO.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/DecAO.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3808" title="DecAO" src="http://www.ruthvenpark.ca/natureblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/DecAO.png" alt="" width="640" height="453" /></a></p>
<p>It will be interesting to see what the rest of the Winter brings. But one thing is for sure: without any snow, we will not be getting Snow Buntings.</p>
<p>Rick</p>
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